Friday, February 13, 2009

Indonesian stocks or USD ??

I have a very interesting data here. I got the data from yahoo finance and www.exchange-rates.org. The data is about the historical prices of the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) and the USD / IDR historical rate. I took 3 November 2008 as the basic data for my analysis. The interesting issue is that obviously if we put our money in USD, the return that we get today (12 February 2009) is significantly higher than if we invest in the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG). Here is the detail :


Historical Return

IHSG USD / IDR IHSG USD / IDR
11/3/08 1352.72 ,884.26
11/4/08 1369.79 10,700.00 1.26% -1.69%
11/5/08 1366.28 11,125.00 1.00% 2.21%
11/6/08 1307.9 11,150.00 -3.31% 2.44%
11/7/08 1338.36 11,150.00 -1.06% 2.44%
11/10/08 1340.68 11,250.00 -0.89% 3.36%
11/11/08 1336.56 11,450.00 -1.19% 5.20%
11/12/08 1326.62 11,650.00 -1.93% 7.04%
11/13/08 1259.71 11,950.00 -6.88% 9.79%
11/14/08 1264.38 11,775.00 -6.53% 8.18%
11/17/08 1236.93 12,000.00 -8.56% 10.25%
11/18/08 1189.86 12,200.00 -12.04% 12.09%
11/19/08 1180.36 12,300.00 -12.74% 13.01%
11/20/08 1154.97 12,550.00 -14.62% 15.30%
11/21/08 1146.28 12,800.00 -15.26% 17.60%
11/24/08 1141.4 12,650.00 -15.62% 16.22%
11/25/08 1154.14 12,550.00 -14.68% 15.30%
11/26/08 1193.15 12,350.00 -11.80% 13.47%
11/27/08 1202.07 12,500.00 -11.14% 14.84%
11/28/08 1241.54 12,325.00 -8.22% 13.24%
12/1/08 1223.12 12,700.00 -9.58% 16.68%
12/2/08 1191.36 12,650.00 -11.93% 16.22%
12/3/08 1192.53 12,350.00 -11.84% 13.47%
12/4/08 1205.32 12,075.00 -10.90% 10.94%
12/5/08 1202.34 11,970.00 -11.12% 9.98%
12/9/08 1266.12 11,000.00 -6.40% 1.06%
12/10/08 1315.9 10,924.47 -2.72% 0.37%
12/11/08 1316.69 11,000.00 -2.66% 1.06%
12/12/08 1262.97 10,992.26 -6.63% 0.99%
12/15/08 1359.28 11,063.66 0.48% 1.65%
12/16/08 1342.84 10,996.90 -0.73% 1.03%
12/17/08 1363.98 10,887.35 0.83% 0.03%
12/18/08 1351.76 10,852.02 -0.07% -0.30%
12/19/08 1348.29 10,954.26 -0.33% 0.64%
12/22/08 1345.31 10,980.18 -0.55% 0.88%
12/23/08 1343.72 10,960.36 -0.67% 0.70%
12/24/08 1336.61 10,923.42 -1.19% 0.36%
12/26/08 1340.89 10,935.53 -0.87% 0.47%
12/30/08 1355.41 10,908.04 0.20% 0.22%
1/5/09 1437.34 10,930.28 6.26% 0.42%
1/6/09 1435.54 10,947.22 6.12% 0.58%
1/7/09 1421.47 10,775.45 5.08% -1.00%
1/8/09 1402.66 10,906.42 3.69% 0.20%
1/9/09 1416.67 10,938.53 4.73% 0.50%
1/12/09 1406.55 11,079.82 3.98% 1.80%
1/13/09 1399.73 11,142.73 3.48% 2.37%
1/14/09 1386.91 11,056.25 2.53% 1.58%
1/15/09 1343.49 11,172.57 -0.68% 2.65%
1/16/09 1363.88 11,099.12 0.83% 1.97%
1/19/09 1350.69 11,179.46 -0.15% 2.71%
1/20/09 1344.15 11,154.87 -0.63% 2.49%
1/21/09 1321.45 11,176.32 -2.31% 2.68%
1/22/09 1327.32 11,176.99 -1.88% 2.69%
1/23/09 1315.58 11,142.86 -2.75% 2.38%
1/27/09 1336.63 11,283.49 -1.19% 3.67%
1/28/09 1321.45 11,306.54 -2.31% 3.88%
1/29/09 1324.65 11,285.19 -2.08% 3.68%
1/30/09 1332.67 11,343.12 -1.48% 4.22%
2/2/09 1310.64 11,813.33 -3.11% 8.54%
2/3/09 1304.33 11,638.68 -3.58% 6.93%
2/4/09 1320.36 11,681.90 -2.39% 7.33%
2/5/09 1328.07 11,717.14 -1.82% 7.65%
2/6/09 1350.64 11,687.74 -0.15% 7.38%
2/9/09 1342.23 11,723.08 -0.78% 7.71%
2/10/09 1332.13 11,744.76 -1.52% 7.91%
2/11/09 1324.82 11,720.75 -2.06% 7.69%
2/12/09 1325.42 11,770.75 -2.02% 8.14%

To make it easier, I put the chart here:



So, where will you put your money, IHSG or USD ??

Monday, February 9, 2009

GBP/USD so easy to predict


Trading the GBP/USD FX pair never been that's easy. Look at this chart, every time it is touch the major MA line, it would go back to its major trend... This month is a really easy month for GBP/USD.... Any comments?

Sunday, February 1, 2009

USD / IDR, its quite worrying...






Look at this USD / IDR trend.. I'm affraid that it's going to reach 12.500. Any comments??

Funny Formation

It's a good one... Check this out..
http://clusterstock.alleyinsider.com/2009/1/holy-crap-its-a-black-swan-formation