IDR is Gaining this Week

As what I have predicted last week, the IDR support at 12000 level would be an ideal point for a reversal. IDR closed this week at 11.870 per dollar. The weakening of USD globally is triggered by the Fed plan to spend 1 trillion USD to buy corporate and government debt so that it would be able to reduce borrowing rate. In Indonesia, the JSX also gained this week as I already predicted due to the increasing demand from the foreign investors. The yield on Indonesia's 10 year bonds is arround 12% which is about 10% higher than USA bonds, hence investors are exchanging their USD to get a higher yield in IDR. With the risk appetite improving, I would expect the IDR to keep its strength relatively to USD for the coming week. Any other opinion ?

Is it the sign of reversal EUR / USD ?

I would show you the EUR/USD daily chart. I believe that in a short period of time, the EURO would be appreciate against the US Dollar. The momentum shows that the force for the USD to strengthening has been diminished. There is a strong support around 1.2476. We need to look at the volume in the coming days. If the volume does increase, we would expect the EUR to go to around 1.4300.


Here is the 1H chart :

Indonesian stocks or USD ??

I have a very interesting data here. I got the data from yahoo finance and www.exchange-rates.org. The data is about the historical prices of the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) and the USD / IDR historical rate. I took 3 November 2008 as the basic data for my analysis. The interesting issue is that obviously if we put our money in USD, the return that we get today (12 February 2009) is significantly higher than if we invest in the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG). Here is the detail :

	Historical		Return
	IHSG	USD / IDR	IHSG	USD / IDR
11/3/08	1352.72	,884.26
11/4/08	1369.79	10,700.00	1.26%	-1.69%
11/5/08	1366.28	11,125.00	1.00%	2.21%
11/6/08	1307.9	11,150.00	-3.31%	2.44%
11/7/08	1338.36	11,150.00	-1.06%	2.44%
11/10/08	1340.68	11,250.00	-0.89%	3.36%
11/11/08	1336.56	11,450.00	-1.19%	5.20%
11/12/08	1326.62	11,650.00	-1.93%	7.04%
11/13/08	1259.71	11,950.00	-6.88%	9.79%
11/14/08	1264.38	11,775.00	-6.53%	8.18%
11/17/08	1236.93	12,000.00	-8.56%	10.25%
11/18/08	1189.86	12,200.00	-12.04%	12.09%
11/19/08	1180.36	12,300.00	-12.74%	13.01%
11/20/08	1154.97	12,550.00	-14.62%	15.30%
11/21/08	1146.28	12,800.00	-15.26%	17.60%
11/24/08	1141.4	12,650.00	-15.62%	16.22%
11/25/08	1154.14	12,550.00	-14.68%	15.30%
11/26/08	1193.15	12,350.00	-11.80%	13.47%
11/27/08	1202.07	12,500.00	-11.14%	14.84%
11/28/08	1241.54	12,325.00	-8.22%	13.24%
12/1/08	1223.12	12,700.00	-9.58%	16.68%
12/2/08	1191.36	12,650.00	-11.93%	16.22%
12/3/08	1192.53	12,350.00	-11.84%	13.47%
12/4/08	1205.32	12,075.00	-10.90%	10.94%
12/5/08	1202.34	11,970.00	-11.12%	9.98%
12/9/08	1266.12	11,000.00	-6.40%	1.06%
12/10/08	1315.9	10,924.47	-2.72%	0.37%
12/11/08	1316.69	11,000.00	-2.66%	1.06%
12/12/08	1262.97	10,992.26	-6.63%	0.99%
12/15/08	1359.28	11,063.66	0.48%	1.65%
12/16/08	1342.84	10,996.90	-0.73%	1.03%
12/17/08	1363.98	10,887.35	0.83%	0.03%
12/18/08	1351.76	10,852.02	-0.07%	-0.30%
12/19/08	1348.29	10,954.26	-0.33%	0.64%
12/22/08	1345.31	10,980.18	-0.55%	0.88%
12/23/08	1343.72	10,960.36	-0.67%	0.70%
12/24/08	1336.61	10,923.42	-1.19%	0.36%
12/26/08	1340.89	10,935.53	-0.87%	0.47%
12/30/08	1355.41	10,908.04	0.20%	0.22%
1/5/09	1437.34	10,930.28	6.26%	0.42%
1/6/09	1435.54	10,947.22	6.12%	0.58%
1/7/09	1421.47	10,775.45	5.08%	-1.00%
1/8/09	1402.66	10,906.42	3.69%	0.20%
1/9/09	1416.67	10,938.53	4.73%	0.50%
1/12/09	1406.55	11,079.82	3.98%	1.80%
1/13/09	1399.73	11,142.73	3.48%	2.37%
1/14/09	1386.91	11,056.25	2.53%	1.58%
1/15/09	1343.49	11,172.57	-0.68%	2.65%
1/16/09	1363.88	11,099.12	0.83%	1.97%
1/19/09	1350.69	11,179.46	-0.15%	2.71%
1/20/09	1344.15	11,154.87	-0.63%	2.49%
1/21/09	1321.45	11,176.32	-2.31%	2.68%
1/22/09	1327.32	11,176.99	-1.88%	2.69%
1/23/09	1315.58	11,142.86	-2.75%	2.38%
1/27/09	1336.63	11,283.49	-1.19%	3.67%
1/28/09	1321.45	11,306.54	-2.31%	3.88%
1/29/09	1324.65	11,285.19	-2.08%	3.68%
1/30/09	1332.67	11,343.12	-1.48%	4.22%
2/2/09	1310.64	11,813.33	-3.11%	8.54%
2/3/09	1304.33	11,638.68	-3.58%	6.93%
2/4/09	1320.36	11,681.90	-2.39%	7.33%
2/5/09	1328.07	11,717.14	-1.82%	7.65%
2/6/09	1350.64	11,687.74	-0.15%	7.38%
2/9/09	1342.23	11,723.08	-0.78%	7.71%
2/10/09	1332.13	11,744.76	-1.52%	7.91%
2/11/09	1324.82	11,720.75	-2.06%	7.69%
2/12/09	1325.42	11,770.75	-2.02%	8.14%

To make it easier, I put the chart here:



So, where will you put your money, IHSG or USD ??

GBP/USD so easy to predict

Trading the GBP/USD FX pair never been that's easy. Look at this chart, every time it is touch the major MA line, it would go back to its major trend... This month is a really easy month for GBP/USD.... Any comments?